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Frank Visser, graduated as a psychologist of culture and religion, founded IntegralWorld in 1997. He worked as production manager for various publishing houses and as service manager for various internet companies and lives in Amsterdam. Books: Ken Wilber: Thought as Passion (SUNY, 2003), and The Corona Conspiracy: Combatting Disinformation about the Coronavirus (Kindle, 2020).

The Taiwan Question

China's View, the West's Lens,
and the Future of Global Stability

Frank Visser / ChatGPT

Few geopolitical flashpoints are as symbolically charged, economically consequential, and militarily perilous as the Taiwan Strait. For China, Taiwan is the last unresolved chapter of a century-long national humiliation. For the West, it is the frontline of democracy against authoritarian expansion. The clash between these two narratives makes a future Taiwan crisis not only likely—but globally transformative.

1. China's View: “One China” as a Historical Mandate

For Beijing, the Taiwan question is not primarily about democracy, freedom, or even economics. It is about sovereignty and historical legitimacy.

From the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) perspective, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, temporarily separated due to the unfinished outcome of the Chinese Civil War (1945-49). The CCP views itself as the rightful government of all China, including Taiwan, which it calls a “renegade province.” The One China Principle is thus not negotiable—it is a pillar of the Chinese nation-state's identity, endorsed by every Chinese leader since Mao.

Xi Jinping has elevated the issue to an existential national mission. His call for the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” explicitly includes reunification with Taiwan, preferably peacefully, but by force if necessary. From Beijing's standpoint, foreign support for Taiwan's de facto independence is direct interference in China's internal affairs, akin to colonial manipulation in the 19th century.

To Chinese strategists, the Taiwan question is not only about territory but about preventing dismemberment. If China tolerated the “loss” of Taiwan, it would invite separatism in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong. Therefore, maintaining territorial integrity is tied to regime survival.

2. The West's View: Taiwan as a Democracy and Strategic Bastion

In the Western imagination, Taiwan represents a model liberal democracy flourishing under the shadow of an authoritarian giant. It's the David-versus-Goliath narrative in geopolitical form.

The United States and its allies, while formally adhering to the One China policy, have effectively pursued a “dual deterrence” strategy: discouraging Taiwan from declaring formal independence, while warning China against military coercion. This deliberate ambiguity maintains the status quo—but also deepens mutual suspicion.

For the West, defending Taiwan serves multiple purposes:

• Strategic containment: Taiwan is a key link in the so-called First Island Chain, stretching from Japan to the Philippines. Losing Taiwan would break this chain, allowing China to project naval power deep into the Pacific.
• Technological security: Taiwan is home to TSMC, the world's most advanced semiconductor manufacturer. A Chinese takeover—or even a blockade—would upend global supply chains.
• Democratic identity: Supporting Taiwan affirms the West's self-image as defender of democratic norms against autocracy.

Thus, while China sees Taiwan as a domestic issue, the West treats it as a test case for the global order.

3. Contrasting Worldviews

These competing frames ensure that each side interprets the same facts through an incompatible moral logic: unity vs. autonomy, sovereignty vs. democracy, history vs. choice.

4. The Economic Time Bomb: Taiwan's Centrality in Global Supply Chains

A crisis over Taiwan would instantly trigger the most severe economic shock since World War II.

a. The Semiconductor Achilles Heel

Taiwan produces roughly 60% of the world's semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced chips. TSMC alone supplies Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and nearly every major tech company. A Chinese invasion or blockade could cripple global electronics, automobiles, defense systems, and AI infrastructure.

Even a limited conflict or embargo would:

• Halt production in Hsinchu's “Silicon Shield.”
• Force companies to scramble for alternatives in South Korea, Japan, or the U.S.
• Spike inflation, disrupt logistics, and plunge global markets into turmoil.

b. Trade and Shipping Disruption

The Taiwan Strait carries over 40% of global container traffic. Any military escalation—missile tests, naval blockades, or air exclusion zones—would paralyze trade routes linking China, Japan, and Southeast Asia. Global GDP could shrink by 2-4% in the first year of a conflict, according to economic simulations.

c. Sanctions and Decoupling

A Chinese invasion would trigger Western sanctions akin to or harsher than those imposed on Russia—but the economic fallout would be exponentially greater. Unlike Russia, China is deeply embedded in global trade and manufacturing. A sudden decoupling could shatter the world economy, pushing the West into recession and China into autarky.

5. The Military and Diplomatic Spiral

a. China's Strategy

China has spent decades preparing for a potential “Joint Island Landing Campaign.” It has developed a massive missile arsenal, advanced naval capabilities, and cyber warfare tools designed to overwhelm Taiwan's defenses before U.S. forces could intervene.

b. U.S. Ambiguity Tested

Washington's policy of strategic ambiguity may be nearing its limits. President Biden has repeatedly said the U.S. would defend Taiwan—only for the White House to walk back his words. Still, the credibility of American deterrence is on the line. Failure to act could embolden other revisionist powers; intervention could ignite a regional or even nuclear war.

c. Diplomatic Fallout

A Taiwan conflict would fracture international institutions. Asian nations—Japan, South Korea, India, ASEAN—would face impossible choices between security alignment and economic dependency. The UN Security Council would be paralyzed. The idea of a “rules-based international order” could collapse entirely.

6. The Deep Structure of the Conflict

At its core, the Taiwan issue reflects two incompatible civilizational logics:

• China's Civilizational Realism: The state embodies cultural unity; political dissent is subordinate to historical destiny.
• The West's Liberal Universalism: Individuals and peoples possess inalienable rights to self-determination.

Neither side can easily compromise without betraying its own foundational myth. The Taiwan Strait thus becomes a mirror reflecting the global divide between civilizational sovereignty and universal liberalism.

7. Possible Futures

The trajectory will depend less on military capabilities than on mutual misperception—each side's conviction that the other will back down.

8. Toward a Post-Hegemonic Order?

Some analysts argue that the Taiwan question symbolizes the end of U.S.-centered global order. If the West cannot defend Taiwan without destroying the world economy, and China cannot seize it without global backlash, the outcome may be a new multipolar détente—an uneasy coexistence between spheres of influence.

Others fear the opposite: that the collision of pride, ideology, and technology will make the Taiwan Strait the Sarajevo of the 21st century.

9. Conclusion: A Test of Civilizational Maturity

The Taiwan issue is not just about one island—it is about the world's capacity to balance national identity and global interdependence. China sees reunification as the completion of history; the West sees Taiwan's autonomy as a bulwark of liberty. Both are caught in narratives that leave little room for compromise.

If a Taiwan crisis erupts, it will not only determine the fate of East Asia—it will reveal whether humanity has learned to manage power in an interconnected world without repeating the tragedies of the past century.