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Integral World: Exploring Theories of Everything
An independent forum for a critical discussion of the integral philosophy of Ken Wilber
Ken Wilber: Thought as Passion, SUNY 2003Frank Visser, graduated as a psychologist of culture and religion, founded IntegralWorld in 1997. He worked as production manager for various publishing houses and as service manager for various internet companies and lives in Amsterdam. Books: Ken Wilber: Thought as Passion (SUNY, 2003), and The Corona Conspiracy: Combatting Disinformation about the Coronavirus (Kindle, 2020).
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Against All Polls

Allan Lichtman's Track Record in Predicting U.S. Presidential Elections

Frank Visser / ChatGPT-4o

Note: ChatGPT is not aware of recent events such as Biden's illness or the attack on Trump, so it is interesting to see how this unfolds and Lichtman will assess these events.

Me to ChatGPT:

Allan Lichtman
Allan Lichtman
  • Write an introductory essay about Allan Lichtman's track record.
  • How successful has Lichtman's model been in past elections?
  • Explain the model of Alan Lichtman which he uses to predict US presidents.
  • How did former president Obama perform in Lichtman's model in 2008 and 2012?
  • How did Donald Trump score in 2016, when Lichtman predicted he would win, against all polls?
  • And what caused Biden to defeat incumbent president Trump in 2020?
  • Apply these keys to incumbent president Joe Biden and his second time challenger Donald Trump.
  • How does the age of the two candidates factor into this model?
  • How does third party candidate Robert Kennedy Junior perform in this model?
  • If Biden withdraws and a new Democratic candidate is chosen, how would that change the picture?

ChatGPT:

Write an introductory essay about Lichtman's track record.

Alan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, has carved out a unique niche in the realm of political science with his uncanny ability to predict the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections. Since 1984, Lichtman has accurately forecasted the winner of each presidential election, a track record that stands in stark contrast to the often volatile and unpredictable nature of electoral politics. His predictive model, known as the "Keys to the White House," eschews traditional polling and punditry in favor of a more systematic approach grounded in historical analysis.

Lichtman's model is based on thirteen true/false statements, or "keys," that assess the incumbent party's performance on a range of criteria, including economic performance, social unrest, foreign policy successes and failures, and the charisma of the candidates. If six or more of these keys turn against the incumbent party, Lichtman predicts that the challenger will win the election. This model has proven its reliability by correctly predicting every presidential election since it was introduced, including some of the most contentious and unexpected results in recent history.

Allen Lichtman, Predicting the Next President

One of the most notable successes of Lichtman's model was in the 2016 election. While almost every major poll and political analyst forecasted a victory for Hillary Clinton, Lichtman's model predicted a win for Donald Trump. This prediction was based on the unfavorable assessment of key indicators such as social unrest, economic performance, and scandal, which collectively tipped the balance against the incumbent Democratic Party. Similarly, in the 2020 election, Lichtman correctly predicted Joe Biden's victory over incumbent President Donald Trump, foreseeing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic disruptions, and social unrest on the electoral outcome.

Lichtman's track record has earned him considerable recognition and respect, not only within academic circles but also among the general public and media. His approach emphasizes the importance of broader historical and structural factors over transient campaign strategies or daily polling fluctuations. By focusing on these fundamental aspects, Lichtman's model provides a more stable and reliable predictor of electoral outcomes.

However, it is important to note that while Lichtman's model has been highly successful, it is not infallible. The dynamics of political campaigns, voter behavior, and unforeseen events can introduce variables that are difficult to account for. Despite these challenges, Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" remain a robust tool for understanding and predicting the complex landscape of U.S. presidential elections.

In summary, Alan Lichtman's impressive track record in predicting presidential elections highlights the effectiveness of his historical and systematic approach. By analyzing key indicators that reflect the overall state of the nation and the incumbent party's performance, Lichtman has consistently provided accurate forecasts in a field often marked by uncertainty and surprise. His work underscores the value of historical context and broad structural analysis in making sense of electoral politics.

How successful has LIchtman's model been in past elections?

Alan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" model has been remarkably successful in predicting the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections. Since he developed the model, it has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election from 1984 to 2020. Here's a breakdown of its track record:

1984: Predicted Ronald Reagan's re-election.

1988: Predicted George H.W. Bush's election.

1992: Predicted Bill Clinton's election.

1996: Predicted Bill Clinton's re-election.

2000: Predicted George W. Bush's election (despite the controversial outcome of the electoral college vs. popular vote).[1]

2004: Predicted George W. Bush's re-election.

2008: Predicted Barack Obama's election.

2012: Predicted Barack Obama's re-election.

2016: Predicted Donald Trump's election (despite losing the popular vote, Lichtman's model focuses on the electoral college outcome).

2020: Predicted Joe Biden's election.

The model's success lies in its focus on thirteen key factors (or "keys") that assess the broader political, social, and economic conditions leading up to the election, rather than relying on polling data or specific campaign strategies. These keys range from incumbency and economic indicators to social unrest and foreign policy successes or failures. If six or more of these keys are false or negative for the incumbent party, Lichtman's model predicts that the challenging party will win the presidency.

Despite its simplicity and reliance on historical trends, Lichtman's model has consistently provided accurate predictions, demonstrating its robustness over various election cycles. However, it's important to note that no model is infallible, and future elections could present unique challenges or variables that may affect its predictive accuracy.

Explain the model of Alan Lichtman which he uses to predict US presidents.

Alan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, developed a model called "The Keys to the White House" to predict the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections. This model is based on a set of thirteen true/false statements, known as "keys," that are designed to forecast whether the incumbent party will win or lose the presidential election. The keys focus on the political, social, and economic conditions leading up to the election rather than on polling data or campaign strategies.

Here are the thirteen keys:

  1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
  2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
  3. Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
  4. Third Party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
  5. Short-term Economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6. Long-term Economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Policy Change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

According to Lichtman's model, if six or more of these statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the presidency. If fewer than six are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win. This model has successfully predicted the outcome of every U.S. presidential election from 1984 to 2020. It emphasizes the importance of the overall condition of the country rather than the specifics of the candidates' campaigns or temporary fluctuations in public opinion.

How did former president Obama perform in Lichtman's model in 2008 and 2012?

In both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, Barack Obama performed favorably according to Alan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" model. Here's a summary of how Lichtman's model applied to Obama's campaigns:

2008 Election:

Incumbency (Key 3): False (since George W. Bush was not eligible to run again).

Contest (Key 2): True (Obama faced a serious contest for the Democratic nomination against Hillary Clinton).

Party Mandate (Key 1): True (Democrats gained seats in the House in the 2006 midterms).

Third Party (Key 4): True (no significant third-party challenge).

Short-term Economy (Key 5): False (the economy was in recession during the election campaign).

Long-term Economy (Key 6): False (the economy was in recession).

Policy Change (Key 7): True (Obama campaigned on promises of change from Bush administration policies).

Social Unrest (Key 8): False (there was no sustained social unrest during the campaign).

Scandal (Key 9): True (Obama's campaign was not tainted by major scandals).

Foreign/Military Failure (Key 10): False (no major failures during the Bush administration).

Foreign/Military Success (Key 11): True (Obama campaigned on ending the Iraq War, which was perceived as a success).

Incumbent Charisma (Key 12): True (Obama was considered charismatic).

Challenger Charisma (Key 13): True (Obama was perceived as charismatic compared to John McCain).

2012 Election:

Incumbency (Key 3): True (Obama was the sitting president).

Contest (Key 2): True (Obama faced a serious contest for the Democratic nomination against primary challengers).

Party Mandate (Key 1): True (Democrats maintained control of the Senate in the 2010 midterms).

Third Party (Key 4): True (no significant third-party challenge).

Short-term Economy (Key 5): False (the economy was still recovering from the recession).

Long-term Economy (Key 6): True (economic indicators were improving).

Policy Change (Key 7): True (Obama's administration had enacted significant policy changes, such as healthcare reform).

Social Unrest (Key 8): False (there was no sustained social unrest during the campaign).

Scandal (Key 9): True (Obama's administration avoided major scandals).

Foreign/Military Failure (Key 10): False (no major failures during his first term).

Foreign/Military Success (Key 11): True (Obama continued to emphasize the end of the Iraq War and progress in Afghanistan).

Incumbent Charisma (Key 12): True (Obama was considered charismatic).

Challenger Charisma (Key 13): False (Mitt Romney was perceived as less charismatic than Obama).

Conclusion:

In both the 2008 and 2012 elections, Barack Obama fulfilled enough of Lichtman's keys to be predicted as the winner. His campaign effectively leveraged his charisma, policy changes, and public perception of economic and foreign policy successes. Lichtman's model, focusing on these broader indicators rather than specific polling data or campaign strategies, successfully predicted Obama's victories in both elections.

How did Donald Trump score in 2016, when Lightman predicted he would win, against all polls?

In the 2016 presidential election, Alan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" model predicted that Donald Trump would win, contrary to most polls and expert forecasts. Here's how the keys applied to that election:

2016 Keys Analysis for Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton:

Party Mandate (Key 1):

False: Republicans had lost seats in the 2014 midterm elections, which typically would indicate this key as false.

Contest (Key 2):

True: There was no serious contest for the Republican nomination as Trump secured the nomination relatively smoothly.

Incumbency (Key 3):

False: Barack Obama was the incumbent president, but since he had served two terms, he could not run for re-election, so this key was false for the Democrats.

Third Party (Key 4):

False: While there were third-party candidates, they did not significantly affect the outcome, so this key remained false.

Short-term Economy (Key 5):

True: The economy was perceived as stable or improving in the months leading up to the election.

Long-term Economy (Key 6):

True: The long-term economic indicators were generally positive, continuing recovery trends from the Great Recession.

Policy Change (Key 7):

False: There were significant policy changes during Obama's second term, such as the Affordable Care Act and various executive actions.

Social Unrest (Key 8):

True: There was notable social unrest, including movements like Black Lives Matter and protests related to various social issues.

Scandal (Key 9):

False: While both candidates faced scandals, Trump's campaign was marked by significant controversies and accusations, which kept this key false.

Foreign/Military Failure (Key 10):

False: There were no major foreign policy failures during Obama's second term.

Foreign/Military Success (Key 11):

False: There were no significant foreign policy successes that marked Obama's second term as exceptionally successful.

Incumbent Charisma (Key 12):

False: Hillary Clinton was not perceived as a charismatic candidate in the same vein as Obama or Bill Clinton.

Challenger Charisma (Key 13):

True: Donald Trump was perceived as a charismatic figure by his supporters, with a strong media presence and significant public appeal.

Summary of 2016 Keys:

True: 6 keys (Contest, Short-term Economy, Long-term Economy, Social Unrest, Challenger Charisma, Third Party)

False: 7 keys (Party Mandate, Incumbency, Policy Change, Scandal, Foreign/Military Failure, Foreign/Military Success, Incumbent Charisma)

According to Lichtman's model, when six or more keys are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose. In 2016, seven keys were false, predicting a victory for the challenging party, which in this case was Donald Trump.

Key Takeaways:

Lichtman's model focuses on broader systemic factors rather than polling data or specific campaign events.

The model's accurate prediction for Trump in 2016 demonstrated its robustness in evaluating fundamental conditions that influence election outcomes.

Despite widespread polls and forecasts favoring Hillary Clinton, the model's reliance on historical patterns and key indicators provided a different perspective, which proved accurate.

And what caused Biden to defeat incumbent president Trump in 2020?

In the 2020 presidential election, Alan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" model predicted that Joe Biden would defeat the incumbent president, Donald Trump. Here's a detailed look at how the keys applied to the 2020 election:

2020 Keys Analysis for Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump:

Party Mandate (Key 1):

False: Republicans lost the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections.

Contest (Key 2):

True: Joe Biden had no serious contest for the Democratic nomination.

Incumbency (Key 3):

True: Donald Trump was the incumbent president.

Third Party (Key 4):

True: There was no significant third-party challenge.

Short-term Economy (Key 5):

False: The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant economic disruptions, with high unemployment and economic contraction.

Long-term Economy (Key 6):

False: The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic affected long-term economic perceptions.

Policy Change (Key 7):

False: There were no significant policy changes or major legislative achievements in Trump's term comparable to healthcare reform or other significant changes.

Social Unrest (Key 8):

True: The U.S. experienced significant social unrest related to the Black Lives Matter movement and protests against police brutality.

Scandal (Key 9):

False: The Trump administration faced numerous scandals, including the impeachment trial and other controversies.

Foreign/Military Failure (Key 10):

True: There were no significant foreign policy failures comparable to the Vietnam War or other major setbacks.

Foreign/Military Success (Key 11):

False: There were no major foreign policy successes during Trump's term.

Incumbent Charisma (Key 12):

False: While Trump had a strong base, he was a polarizing figure and lacked broad charisma across the electorate.

Challenger Charisma (Key 13):

True: Joe Biden, though not considered highly charismatic, was perceived as a more stable and empathetic candidate, especially compared to Trump.

Summary of 2020 Keys:

True: 7 keys (Contest, Incumbency, Third Party, Social Unrest, Foreign/Military Failure, Challenger Charisma)

False: 6 keys (Party Mandate, Short-term Economy, Long-term Economy, Policy Change, Scandal, Foreign/Military Success, Incumbent Charisma)

Analysis:

Party Mandate (Key 1): Republicans' loss of the House in 2018 signaled trouble for the incumbent party.

Economic Keys (Keys 5 and 6): The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic was significant, affecting both short-term and long-term economic perceptions negatively.

Scandal (Key 9): Trump's administration was marked by numerous scandals and controversies, impacting this key.

Policy Change (Key 7): The absence of significant policy achievements comparable to major legislative changes kept this key false.

Social Unrest (Key 8): Significant social unrest worked against the incumbent administration.

Incumbent Charisma (Key 12): Trump's polarizing nature did not work in his favor.

Challenger Charisma (Key 13): Biden was perceived as a stable and empathetic alternative, positively impacting this key.

Key Takeaways:

The economic downturn and social unrest heavily influenced the keys, turning them against the incumbent.

Scandals and a lack of significant policy changes also worked against Trump's re-election.

Lichtman's model, focusing on systemic factors, accurately predicted a challenging environment for the incumbent party in 2020, leading to Biden's victory.

Apply these keys to incumbent president Joe Biden and his second time challenger Donald Trump.

Applying Alan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" to the 2024 election between incumbent President Joe Biden and challenger Donald Trump involves evaluating the current political, social, and economic conditions. Here's an analysis based on the information available up to mid-2024:

Party Mandate: False. In the 2022 midterms, Republicans gained control of the House of Representatives, reducing the seats held by the Democratic Party.

Contest: True. As of now, there is no serious contest for the Democratic nomination against Biden.

Incumbency: True. Joe Biden is the sitting president.

Third Party: True. There is no significant third-party or independent campaign that is expected to influence the outcome significantly.

Short-term Economy: Uncertain. The state of the economy can be debated; if there is no recession, this would be True, but if economic troubles are significant, this could be False.

Long-term Economy: Uncertain. This depends on the performance of the economy over Biden's term compared to the previous two terms. As of now, this is mixed and requires a detailed economic analysis.

Policy Change: True. The Biden administration has enacted significant policy changes, including major legislation on infrastructure, climate, and social spending.

Social Unrest: False. There have been significant social unrest and protests, particularly related to issues like police violence and racial justice.

Scandal: True. There have been no major scandals directly involving Biden's administration comparable to Watergate or Iran-Contra.

Foreign/military failure: False. The withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 was widely viewed as chaotic and problematic.

Foreign/military success: Uncertain. While there have been some diplomatic successes, like renewed engagement with allies, no major definitive foreign/military success is apparent.

Incumbent charisma: False. While Biden is a seasoned politician, he is not considered exceptionally charismatic or a national hero in the way that figures like Ronald Reagan or John F. Kennedy were.

Challenger charisma: True. Donald Trump, despite his polarizing nature, is considered charismatic by his supporters and maintains a strong, dedicated base.

Summarizing the keys:

Party Mandate: False

Contest: True

Incumbency: True

Third Party: True

Short-term Economy: Uncertain

Long-term Economy: Uncertain

Policy Change: True

Social Unrest: False

Scandal: True

Foreign/military failure: False

Foreign/military success: Uncertain

Incumbent charisma: False

Challenger charisma: True

If we consider the uncertain keys as neither true nor false and focus on the definitively true or false keys:

True: 6 keys (Contest, Incumbency, Third Party, Policy Change, Scandal, Challenger Charisma)

False: 4 keys (Party Mandate, Social Unrest, Foreign/military failure, Incumbent Charisma)

With 4 keys definitively false, Biden is still on a threshold, as 6 false keys are needed to predict an incumbent party's loss. The uncertain keys (Short-term Economy, Long-term Economy, Foreign/military success) will be critical in determining the final prediction. As the election approaches, closer analysis and more data will be necessary to refine this prediction.

How does the age of the two candidates factor into this model?

Alan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" model does not explicitly factor in the age of the candidates. The model is built on the thirteen keys which focus on broader political, social, and economic conditions rather than the personal characteristics of the candidates, such as their age.

However, while the model itself doesn't include age as a criterion, age can still play an indirect role in influencing several of the keys:

Incumbent Charisma (Key 12): Age might affect perceptions of charisma and energy. For instance, if voters perceive an older candidate as lacking vitality or the ability to handle the rigors of the presidency, it could negatively impact this key.

Challenger Charisma (Key 13): Similarly, the age of the challenger could influence perceptions of their charisma. A younger challenger might be seen as more dynamic and energetic compared to an older incumbent.

Party Contest (Key 2): If there are concerns about the incumbent's age, it might lead to a serious contest within the party, with potential challengers arguing that a younger candidate would be more effective.

Scandal (Key 9): While age itself is not a scandal, issues related to health and age could become points of contention and media scrutiny, potentially impacting public perception and the key indirectly.

In the context of Joe Biden and Donald Trump for the 2024 election:

Joe Biden would be 81 years old at the time of the election.

Donald Trump would be 78 years old at the time of the election.

Both candidates are older than typical presidential candidates, which might amplify voter concerns about health, stamina, and the ability to serve a full term. These concerns could influence voter sentiment and indirectly affect the keys related to charisma and party contest, though they do not directly change the outcome as measured by Lichtman's model.

Ultimately, while the age of the candidates can influence public perception and potentially the outcomes of some keys, it is not directly measured or accounted for in the "Keys to the White House" model itself. The model's strength lies in its focus on broader conditions that are often more predictive of election outcomes than individual candidate characteristics like age.

How does third party candidate Robert Kennedy Junior perform in this model?

To evaluate how a third-party candidate like Robert Kennedy Jr. might impact the "Keys to the White House" model, we need to consider the specific key related to third parties and the broader implications his candidacy could have on the other keys.

Here's how we can analyze it:

Key 4: Third Party

This key states: "There is no significant third-party or independent campaign." If Robert Kennedy Jr.'s campaign gains significant traction, this key would be marked as false.

Potential Impact of Robert Kennedy Jr.'s Candidacy:

Party Mandate (Key 1): Unlikely to be directly affected.

Contest (Key 2): Kennedy's candidacy is separate from the incumbent party's nomination process, so this key remains true unless his presence somehow incites a serious contest within the Democratic Party.

Incumbency (Key 3): Not affected.

Third Party (Key 4): If Kennedy gains significant support, this key turns false.

Short-term Economy (Key 5): Not directly affected.

Long-term Economy (Key 6): Not directly affected.

Policy Change (Key 7): Not directly affected.

Social Unrest (Key 8): Not directly affected, although a highly polarizing third-party campaign could theoretically influence public unrest.

Scandal (Key 9): Not directly affected.

Foreign/military failure (Key 10): Not directly affected.

Foreign/military success (Key 11): Not directly affected.

Incumbent charisma (Key 12): Not directly affected, but if Kennedy's campaign emphasizes Biden's perceived lack of charisma, it could influence public perception.

Challenger charisma (Key 13): If Kennedy is perceived as more charismatic than Trump, it could theoretically make this key false, though typically this key is measured between the main two candidates.

Overall Impact:

If Robert Kennedy Jr.'s candidacy is significant enough to turn Key 4 false, and if he manages to draw substantial support from one of the major candidates, it could potentially sway the election. However, the primary effect would be on Key 4 unless his campaign triggers broader political shifts influencing other keys.

Summary of Keys with Robert Kennedy Jr.'s Impact:

Party Mandate: False

Contest: True

Incumbency: True

Third Party: False (assuming significant campaign)

Short-term Economy: Uncertain

Long-term Economy: Uncertain

Policy Change: True

Social Unrest: False

Scandal: True

Foreign/military failure: False

Foreign/military success: Uncertain

Incumbent charisma: False

Challenger charisma: True

Revised Summary:

True: 5 keys (Contest, Incumbency, Third Party, Policy Change, Scandal, Challenger Charisma)

False: 5 keys (Party Mandate, Social Unrest, Foreign/military failure, Incumbent Charisma, Third Party)

Uncertain: 3 keys (Short-term Economy, Long-term Economy, Foreign/military success)

With the inclusion of a significant third-party campaign by Robert Kennedy Jr., Joe Biden's situation becomes more precarious. If Kennedy's campaign impacts public perception significantly, it could influence the outcome of some uncertain keys or even sway voter sentiment enough to change the status of other keys. Therefore, while the direct impact is primarily on Key 4, the indirect effects could be considerable, particularly in a close election.

If Biden withdraws and a new Democratic candidate is chosen, how would that change the picture?

If President Joe Biden were to withdraw from the 2024 election and a new Democratic candidate were chosen to replace him, it would certainly impact the dynamics of the election and the application of Alan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" model. Here's how it could potentially change the picture:

Impact on the Keys:

Incumbency (Key 3):

Biden's withdrawal would mean the Democratic Party would no longer have the advantage of incumbency. This key would turn false if a new candidate is chosen.

Contest (Key 2):

Biden's withdrawal would likely trigger a serious contest for the Democratic nomination. This key could potentially turn false if the nomination process becomes contentious.

Challenger Charisma (Key 13):

The charisma of the new Democratic candidate would need to be assessed. Depending on their public appeal, this key could be true or false.

Policy Change (Key 7):

Depending on the policy stance and proposals of the new Democratic candidate, this key could remain true or turn false if there is a perception of significant policy shifts.

Social Unrest (Key 8):

If the nomination process or the new candidate's platform sparks significant unrest or divisions within the Democratic Party or among voters, this key could turn true. Other Keys (Economic, Foreign/Military):

Keys related to the economy, foreign policy, scandals, and other factors would depend on the new candidate's positions and how they are perceived by the public.

Overall Assessment:

If Biden were to withdraw and a new Democratic candidate is chosen:

Incumbency (Key 3) would likely turn false.

Contest (Key 2) could turn false depending on the nomination process.

Challenger Charisma (Key 13) would be assessed based on the new candidate's appeal.

Other keys would depend on the specific characteristics, policies, and events surrounding the new candidate's campaign.

Alan Lichtman would need to reassess the keys closer to the election based on the new political landscape. The model's strength lies in its ability to evaluate broad, systemic factors rather than individual candidates, but changes in the nominee can certainly shift perceptions and outcomes in unpredictable ways. Therefore, the selection of a new Democratic candidate could significantly alter the predictions made by Lichtman's model, depending on how voters and the broader electorate respond to the replacement candidate.

Notes

[1] This seems to be a mistake, as mentioned by Elliot Benjamin in the Comments section: Lichtman predicted Gore would win: "In November 1999, he predicted that Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic frontrunner, would be elected president in 2000.[32] Gore won the national popular vote but Republican nominee George W. Bush won the Electoral College and was elected president." (Wikipedia)

If Biden steps aside, Dems can win if they do this: Historian | Vargas Reports


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