Reframing Environmental ScanningAn Integral ApproachJoseph Voros"... a major piece on future views ... that further advances the Wilber philosophy in that specific domain." (Don Beck) SummaryThe basis for a broadened scanning framework is described which may also function as a means for understanding how human minds filter their perceptions of the world. The framework is based on the Four-Quadrant Integral model of Ken Wilber and the Spiral Dynamics model of Don Beck and Chris Cowan. An analytical tool (cross-level analysis) is presented for examining views of the world in terms of both the perceptual filters of the viewer as well as the aspect of the world being viewed, a technique which is also useful for analysing how other scanners do their scanning. A notation for cross-level analysis is presented and described, with examples of its use. This paper is aimed at futurists, environmental scanners and intelligence analysts, all of whom need to gather information, process it, and assess the implications of the signals they find. It assumes no prior knowledge of Wilber's integral framework or of Spiral Dynamics. Rather, it seeks to present the elements of these two models as useful bases for broadening and deepening our understanding of what we see going on in the world. It is hoped that the reader will find them sufficiently useful to investigate the models in more depth." An earlier version of this paper appeared in 'Foresight --- The journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy', Vol 3, No 6, pp533-52, December 2001. Published by MCB UP Ltd and on-line via Emerald Fulltext: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/fs.htm
Dr Joseph Voros began his career as a physicist - he holds a PhD in theoretical physics,
during which he worked on mathematical extensions to the General Theory of Relativity.
Following this, he spent several years in Internet-related companies, including a stint at
Netscape Communications Corporation, before deciding to become a professional futurist. He
has been associated with AFI since early 2000, initially as a project consultant and then
later as an adjunct lecturer, following his appointment as a strategic foresight analyst
to Swinburne University's own top-level strategic planning unit. In that practitioner role
he was involved in the building of a practical organisational strategic thinking capacity
based on the use of foresight concepts and methodologies, subsequently returning to AFI,
where he now teaches foresight practitioners. His professional interests are broadly
multi-disciplinary; his main research interest is the emerging field of Integral Futures
Studies. He has a strong belief in the need for both rigorous intellectual discipline as
well as practical pragmatic utility in "real world" contexts, and this belief lies at the
heart of his approach to Futures Studies and foresight work.
|
Dr Joseph Voros,